Cirium Lowers Aircraft Delivery Forecast to 43,000 Through 2045

The Cirium fleet forecast for 2026 to 2045, published on 13 October 2026, projects around 43,000 commercial aircraft deliveries worth US$3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars, as manufacturing constraints continue to temper airline fleet growth and replacement.

The revised total represents a reduction of approximately 3,500 aircraft from the 46,500 deliveries projected in Cirium's equivalent 2025 release, a fall of about 7.5%. As Airways Magazine notes, the two editions differ in scope: last year's forecast covered aircraft with a minimum of 30 seats and ran through 2044, while the 2026 edition covers passenger jets and turboprops with at least 50 seats and extends to 2045. Those differences limit a direct comparison of the headline totals.

What the Cirium Fleet Forecast Covers

The 2026 edition covers passenger jets and turboprops with at least 50 seats, together with their freighter equivalents delivered to commercial customers. The overall figure of roughly 43,000 breaks down into 32,675 single-aisle jets, 6,965 twin-aisle jets, 1,565 turboprops, 1,170 regional jets and 747 freighters. These detailed figures sum to 43,122, which Cirium rounds to approximately 43,000.

The forecast measures both fleet expansion and the replacement of aircraft reaching the end of their economic lives. New deliveries therefore exceed any net increase in the global fleet, because retiring aircraft must also be substituted.

Why the Forecast Has Been Lowered

According to Airways Magazine, Cirium expects the supply-demand mismatch of the past five years to persist through the rest of the 2020s. Engine availability, supply-chain bottlenecks and extended certification timelines are identified among the key constraints on capacity growth.

Aviation24.be reports that higher fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and trade uncertainty could also alter the timing and regional distribution of growth, adding further downside risk to the projection.

The cost of the current shortage is already visible in fleet data. In a June 2026 statement cited by Airways Magazine, the International Air Transport Association said the aircraft order backlog had exceeded 18,000 units and average fleet age had reached 15.2 years. The association linked the shortage of more fuel-efficient replacement aircraft to higher lease rates, increased maintenance costs and missed efficiency gains.

Fleet Growth and Regional Distribution

Cirium projects a global passenger fleet of just over 50,000 aircraft by 2045, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.2%. That is a slight reduction from the 3.3% annual growth rate projected in last year's forecast.

China, India and the rest of Asia-Pacific collectively account for around 48% of modelled passenger fleet allocation, reflecting the sustained shift in aviation demand towards those markets. Cirium stresses that its fleet allocation figures describe the modelled composition of the fleet over the forecast period, rather than future delivery market shares.

Airbus, Boeing and COMAC in the Modelled Fleet

On the basis of passenger fleet allocation across all forecast years, Airways Magazine reports that Airbus accounts for 47%, Boeing for 39% and COMAC for 5%. The remaining share covers other manufacturers.

The Airbus A321neo is the largest individual aircraft series in the modelled allocation, at 16%. Cirium links the shift toward larger single-aisle aircraft to airlines seeking more seats and lower unit costs while retaining the network flexibility of a narrowbody type. You can explore the full history and operator lists of types mentioned in this report using our Manufacturer Search.

The Role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Conventional gas-turbine aircraft are expected to remain the foundation of the commercial fleet throughout the forecast period. With sustainable aviation fuel availability and cost still constraining its wider use, both Cirium sources agree that fleet renewal and improvements in aircraft and engine efficiency will carry much of the near-term burden of reducing fuel consumption.

Cargo demand also features in the outlook. Aviation24.be notes that Cirium sees resilient freight demand supported by e-commerce growth and time-sensitive logistics, providing a floor beneath freighter deliveries through the period.

The Bottom Line

The Cirium fleet forecast for 2026 to 2045 tells a story of durable long-term demand meeting a supply side that cannot yet match it. A global passenger fleet growing toward 50,000 aircraft will need sustained deliveries, but engine shortages, certification delays and supply-chain fragility mean that airlines are likely to wait longer and pay more for the aircraft they have already ordered.

For Airbus and Boeing, the constraints are as much a challenge as an opportunity. The backlog is large, but converting it into deliveries at the pace the market requires remains the central difficulty of the decade. COMAC's 5% share of modelled fleet allocation will be watched closely as its certification efforts progress in international markets.

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