Executives from Airbus and BAE Systems are expected to meet next week to discuss a potential role for Airbus in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a move that could pave the way for Germany to join the UK-Italy-Japan next-generation fighter project.
Air Data News reports that four people familiar with the plans told the Financial Times about the planned discussions. The talks would cover possible cooperation across future combat air systems, including the fighter itself, collaborative combat aircraft and the combat cloud connecting aircraft, sensors and other assets.
What the Talks Are About
The meeting shifts the debate over Germany's potential GCAP participation from government-level discussions towards the industrial arrangements needed to make it happen. According to the Financial Times, the United Kingdom has already signalled it is open to German participation, and London and Berlin have discussed requirements and potential workshare.
Bringing Germany into the programme would, however, require agreement from Italy and Japan as well as changes to an industrial structure that is already taking shape.
Why Germany Is Looking for a New Path
Germany has been evaluating its options following the breakdown of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), its partnership with France and Spain. As Air Data News explains, FCAS was launched in 2017 with Dassault Aviation responsible for the New Generation Fighter, while Airbus represented much of the German and Spanish industrial participation.
The partnership became mired in disputes over workshare, intellectual property and design authority. Dassault consistently argued that its experience as a combat aircraft prime contractor required it to retain control over key engineering decisions. Those disagreements ultimately proved incompatible with the industrial structure sought by Germany and Airbus.
The Industrial Landscape Inside GCAP
BAE Systems, Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have already established Edgewing as the industrial organisation responsible for developing the GCAP fighter, with workshare and intellectual property arrangements already negotiated among the three founding nations. According to the Financial Times, Airbus is unlikely to accept a peripheral position in such a programme.
Mike Schoellhorn, chief executive of Airbus Defence and Space, has previously said the company would need a meaningful role rather than joining simply to manufacture individual structures such as a wing or tail surface. Any expansion would also have to preserve GCAP's schedule. The three partner countries are targeting entry into service in 2035, five years ahead of the timeframe previously associated with the FCAS fighter.
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What Germany Would Bring to the Table
German participation could significantly expand GCAP's economic and industrial base. Air Data News notes it would add another major defence budget, a potential Luftwaffe requirement and companies including Airbus and MTU Aero Engines to a programme already backed by three large economies. It could also distribute development costs across a larger production base.
Next-generation combat aircraft programmes involve not only a new fighter but also engines, sensors, weapons, autonomous aircraft and the digital infrastructure connecting them. That scale makes cost-sharing across more partners a genuine industrial incentive.
The Alternatives Germany Faces
Germany could theoretically pursue a new programme led by Airbus, potentially with Spain and other partners. As the Financial Times points out, that would mean establishing another next-generation combat aircraft project almost from the beginning.
Another possibility involves cooperation with Sweden. Airbus and Saab have explored potential collaboration, while Stockholm is conducting studies and technology demonstrations to determine what should eventually succeed the Gripen. Sweden has not yet decided to develop a new crewed fighter, placing any Airbus-Saab programme at a considerably earlier stage than GCAP, which already has a multinational organisation, an industrial structure and a defined service-entry target.
A Historical Parallel
There is a striking historical parallel to the situation Germany now faces. During the 1980s, France participated in European efforts to develop a common fighter but disagreements over requirements, industrial leadership and design authority eventually led Paris to pursue the Rafale independently. Germany remained with the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain in the programme that produced the Eurofighter Typhoon.
As Air Data News observes, a German move toward GCAP would therefore reunite much of the industrial partnership behind the Eurofighter. BAE Systems, Airbus and Leonardo already work together on the Typhoon, though GCAP would add Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to a considerably different multinational structure.
The Bottom Line
Next week's meeting between Airbus and BAE Systems will not determine German participation in GCAP by itself. According to the Financial Times, it could, however, establish whether there is enough industrial space inside GCAP for Airbus to join at all. That question of industrial space is the central one: without a role that Airbus considers meaningful, Germany's path into the programme narrows considerably.
For the current GCAP partners, accepting Germany could reduce the financial burden and expand the potential production base, but would also require accommodating a participant with enough industrial and economic weight to demand substantial influence. The coming weeks will show whether both sides see sufficient common ground to take talks further.
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