The single most revealing number in the current e-SAF picture is not a mandate or a target: it is a capacity figure. IATA reports that global e-SAF production capacity currently operating and under construction stands at around 0.02 million tonnes. The EU and UK together have legally mandated combined e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. That gap, thirty times over, is where this analysis begins.
One e-SAF Plant Against Thirty Refineries
Only one single e-SAF production site is currently in operation worldwide, according to IATA. To put that in the context of what the law requires, IATA calculates that around 20 commercial-scale refineries would be needed to meet the mandated 2030 e-SAF volume. No new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been made in the past year, IATA reports, and the SASHA Coalition confirms that no UK e-SAF projects have reached final investment decision either.
The scale of the shortfall is not a matter of interpretation. Total global SAF production, across all production pathways and not just e-SAF, is expected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, IATA notes. That represents about 0.8% of aviation fuel use in 2026. The e-SAF mandate alone, in the EU and UK combined, calls for roughly 0.6 million tonnes. The entire global SAF industry, in other words, is still operating at a fraction of what two jurisdictions' regulations require from a single, harder-to-produce fuel pathway.
What the EU and UK Mandates Actually Require
The legal obligations are not identical on both sides of the Channel. The SASHA Coalition sets out that the UK's e-SAF sub-mandate is set at 0.5% in 2030, compared with the EU's 1.2% mandate for 2030. The UK's 2024 SAF mandate legally obliges an increasing proportion of SAF in the fuel mix from 2025 onwards, the SASHA Coalition explains. The UK SAF Bill was introduced in May 2025 and was set for a third reading in Autumn 2025, the SASHA Coalition notes, and the bill excludes HEFA projects from eligibility for the revenue certainty mechanism, leaving e-SAF as the technology the policy is designed to support.
Aviation's weight in national emissions figures gives these targets their urgency. The SASHA Coalition reports that in 2022, domestic and international aviation accounted for 7% of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions. A legal mandate with no production capacity behind it does not reduce that figure.
The Broader SAF Picture Looks Better, Within Limits
For conventional SAF, the picture in the EU is markedly more encouraging, though the e-SAF story pulls in the opposite direction. EASA's 2026 ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report, published on 17 September 2026, shows that EU aviation fuel suppliers reported supplying 39.3 million tonnes of aviation fuel at Union airports in 2025, of which 1.1 million tonnes, equal to 2.8%, was SAF. That exceeded the mandatory 2% minimum for 2025. EASA Executive Director Florian Guillermet said: "We are pleased to confirm that the SAF mandate under ReFuelEU Aviation was not only met but exceeded."
Coverage has also broadened. EASA reports that SAF was supplied at 121 Union airports across all 27 EU Member States in 2025, with 79% of Union airports receiving SAF, up from 33 airports in 2024. SAF use at Union airports reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 3.77 million tonnes in 2025, EASA calculates. EU SAF supply rose from 193,000 tonnes in 2024 to 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, according to EASA.
These are real gains for SAF overall. They do not, however, address the e-SAF deficit. The 2025 compliance figures cover all SAF types; e-SAF remains the technology with the single operating plant and no pipeline of investment decisions behind it.
The Cost of SAF and Who Pays
IATA estimates that SAF will cost airlines approximately $4.3 billion in 2026. That cost does not fall in isolation: it sits alongside the broader financial pressures of operating at a time when fuel represents a major share of airline operating expenditure. Our readers following how automation and cost are reshaping aviation will find related context in our analysis of whether AI will remove the need for pilots.
Passenger sentiment, at least as measured by survey, runs ahead of the investment picture. IATA's April 2026 passenger survey found that 89% of passengers believe the industry should keep reducing emissions even if governments scale back efforts, and 66% said they are willing to pay more to compensate for emissions. Whether that willingness translates into revenue that closes the e-SAF investment gap is a question the current investment figures cannot yet answer.
For readers tracking which airlines are flying SAF routes and at what scale, our Airline Search tool lets you explore carriers by route and fleet.
What the Numbers Mean for 2030
The facts in this brief point in one direction. A combined legal mandate of around 0.6 million tonnes of e-SAF by 2030 exists. Global e-SAF capacity operating and under construction stands at around 0.02 million tonnes. IATA identifies one operational production site worldwide and no new final investment decisions in the past year. The construction timeline for a commercial-scale power-to-liquid refinery means that projects not yet at final investment decision are very unlikely to be producing fuel by 2030.
The EU's broader SAF mandate was met in 2025, and coverage is expanding, which demonstrates that the regulatory mechanism can work when supply exists. The e-SAF sub-mandate is a different problem: it requires a fuel type for which the investment pipeline has, by IATA's own account, stalled. Around 20 commercial-scale refineries are needed, IATA states. One is operating. The distance between those two numbers is what defines the e-SAF challenge for the rest of this decade.
This article draws on information from IATA, EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) and SASHA Coalition.
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