Embraer Closes In on Japan Airlines E2 Order: A Blow to Airbus?
By The Aviation Hub
6 min read
Embraer appears to be on the verge of another important win in Asia. Japan Airlines is leaning towards the E2 family over the Airbus A220 for an order of around 20 regional jets, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bloomberg first reported that a final decision could come as soon as October.
No order has been signed, and the outcome could still change.
If confirmed, the deal would extend a relationship between Embraer and Japan Airlines that goes back almost two decades.
It would also be another setback for the A220 in a market Airbus has been working hard to win.
Where the Competition Stands
The contest pits the Embraer E190-E2 against the Airbus A220-100, according to Fliegerfaust.
Both aircraft target the same segment of roughly 100 to 120 seats.
Industry data provider reporting indicates that Japan Airlines had placed the E2 ahead of the A220 in its evaluation.
The same outlet previously reported that the airline was reviewing up to 70 aircraft for its regional fleet, made up of as many as 40 regional jets and 30 turboprops.
That wider review suggests the current 20 jet order may not be the last.
A successful first deal could open the door to further business for Embraer.
The Incumbency Advantage for Embraer
Embraer enters the contest from a position of strength.
The JAL regional subsidiary J-Air operates 18 E170s and 14 E190s on domestic routes across Japan, according to Air Data News.
Only days before the Bloomberg report, Japan Airlines renewed its support agreement with Embraer for those 32 jets.
Air Data News reports that the multi year deal covers maintenance, repair and spare parts under the Embraer Pool Program.
That timing is telling. An airline planning to leave a manufacturer rarely extends support arrangements just before choosing a rival.
Incumbency matters enormously in fleet decisions.
J-Air’s pilots, engineers and planners already understand Embraer aircraft.
Embraer designed the E2 so that crews moving from first generation E Jets need only limited additional training, which reduces transition costs.
The Ghost of the SpaceJet for Japan Airlines?
The JAL decision has an unusual backstory.
Japan Airlines had already chosen a successor to its Embraer fleet more than a decade ago.
Air Data News explains that the airline ordered 32 Mitsubishi Regional Jets in 2015.
The Japanese built aircraft, later renamed SpaceJet, were due to enter service with J-Air from 2021.
The programme never reached service and was eventually abandoned.
That left Japan Airlines flying its existing E Jets for far longer than planned, and it has now reopened the competition more than ten years later.
For Embraer, this is a second chance.
The company was effectively displaced by a domestic programme that failed, and it now has the opportunity to secure the replacement order after all.
Embraer and the Momentum Behind the E2
The E2 has had a strong run of sales over the past year.
Bloomberg notes wins with All Nippon Airways, Finnair and SAS, while Embraer is also competing for a large order from IndiGo.
ANA is particularly relevant.
The Embraer media centre confirms that ANA Holdings expanded its E190-E2 order with eight more aircraft earlier this month.
If Japan Airlines follows, both of Japan’s major airline groups would operate the E190-E2.
That would give Embraer a dominant position in Japanese regional flying and a strong support base in the country.
The wider numbers also look healthy.
Aircraft Interiors International reports that the Embraer backlog reached $34.5 billion in the second quarter, a record, with the E2 programme passing 500 firm orders.
Potential Order from Japan Airlines: Why This Hurts Airbus
For Airbus, the A220 remains a strategically important but commercially difficult programme.
The aircraft is popular with passengers and operators, but profitability has been a long term challenge.
Losing Japan Airlines would sting.
Fliegerfaust notes that a JAL choice would echo Finnair’s broader decision in favour of the E2 family.
The Japanese contest is also specifically about the smaller A220-100 variant.
Most A220 orders have been for the larger A220-300, and the -100 has struggled to attract new customers. A loss here would add to questions about its future.
The Aviation Hub has previously covered the airBaltic A220 fleet reduction and its implications for Airbus.
A JAL loss would add another difficult chapter to the A220 story.
The Seat Count Question
Capacity is a key differentiator.
Aviacion al Dia reports that the E190-E2 seats 97 passengers in a standard two class layout, while the A220-100 can seat up to 120.
For Japanese regional routes, smaller may be better.
Many J-Air routes serve smaller cities where demand does not justify larger aircraft, and airport infrastructure can be limited.
The E190-E2 closely matches the size of the existing E190, allowing Japan Airlines to replace aircraft one for one.
The A220-100 would push the airline into a larger gauge that may not suit every route.
What Happens Next for Embraer
The next milestone is October, when Japan Airlines could make its final decision.
Any announcement would likely follow shortly afterwards, possibly with options for additional aircraft.
Embraer will be watching closely.
A JAL order would strengthen its hand in Asia, reinforce the E2’s momentum and deny Airbus a marquee customer.
For Airbus, there is still time.
Fleet campaigns can shift late, and Airbus may sharpen its offer. However, overcoming Embraer’s incumbency at J-Air would require a compelling commercial case.
What an Embraer Win Would Mean for Japan
A JAL order would matter beyond the two manufacturers.
Japan’s regional network links dozens of smaller cities and islands with Tokyo, Osaka and other major hubs, and many of those routes depend on right sized jets.
The current J-Air fleet is ageing.
The first E170s joined JAL in the late 2000s, so replacement is becoming a practical necessity rather than a choice.
A new generation aircraft would bring lower fuel burn per seat and reduced noise, both important in a country where many regional airports sit close to communities.
The E2 family also uses Pratt and Whitney geared turbofan engines, which Embraer markets as delivering significant efficiency gains over the first generation jets.
There is a support dimension too.
With ANA and JAL both flying the E190-E2, Embraer could justify deeper investment in parts, training and engineering support within Japan.
That would benefit both airlines and further entrench the Brazilian manufacturer in the market.
Finally, the decision closes a chapter.
After the SpaceJet disappointment, choosing a proven aircraft from a trusted supplier would give Japan Airlines certainty over its regional future for the next two decades.
Readers can explore both manufacturers and their aircraft through our Manufacturer Search tool, and read our analysis of another major Airbus milestone in the A350F first flight.
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