Ryanair CEO Warns Europe: Airfares to Rise up to 20% in 2027
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has warned that European airfares will see their biggest ever increase, rising by up to 20% next year.
By The Aviation Hub
4 min read
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has forecast that Ryanair airfares, and those across Europe more broadly, will rise by as much as 20% over the next 12 months, in what he described as the biggest increase in the history of European aviation.
O'Leary made the remarks at a news conference in Brussels on Tuesday, citing a combination of unhedged jet fuel costs, reduced seat capacity driven by airline bankruptcies and consolidation, and the pressure created by the ongoing Iran conflict.
What O'Leary Actually Said
Speaking in Brussels, O'Leary told reporters: "You're going to see airfares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You're going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months."
That is a striking forecast from an airline chief who has built Ryanair's entire brand around low fares. O'Leary was clear that the pressure is industry-wide, not limited to Ryanair alone.
The Fuel Hedging Problem
The immediate trigger is jet fuel. According to RTÉ, the Iran war has driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, squeezing margins for airlines that entered 2026 without adequate hedging in place.
O'Leary said Ryanair and other European carriers hold strong hedge positions for 2026, with Ryanair 80% hedged at $67 per barrel through to March 2027, a position put in place before the conflict began at the end of February.
The picture beyond that point is far less comfortable. From April 2027, O'Leary said most European airlines have very little hedging in place. Ryanair itself is just 15% hedged for that period, at $85 a barrel, compared with spot rates running at around double that level.
Fewer Seats, Higher Ryanair Airfares
Fuel costs alone do not fully explain the forecast. RTÉ reports that O'Leary expects fewer seats to be available across European markets next year as a result of airline bankruptcies and takeovers, reducing competitive pressure on fares.
When capacity shrinks and costs rise at the same time, the arithmetic for consumers becomes straightforward. Airlines with unhedged fuel bills and fewer rivals on key routes have less reason to hold fares down.
Belgium Feels the Pinch First
O'Leary was in Brussels partly to deliver a pointed message to Belgian policymakers. According to RTÉ, Ryanair is cutting 20 routes and more than a million seats from Belgium's winter schedule in response to plans to raise the country's aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January.
The move is consistent with Ryanair's long-standing practice of withdrawing capacity from markets where governments increase passenger levies. Belgium will lose significant connectivity as a direct result.
Boeing 737 MAX 10 Certification in Sight
The Brussels news conference also produced an update on Ryanair's fleet growth plans. O'Leary said he is optimistic that United States certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 will be completed before the end of October, which would allow Ryanair to receive 16 of the type in early 2027.
"Boeing are hoping to have the MAX 10, the new aircraft, certified before the end of October. We're pretty optimistic that that date will be hit," he told Reuters.
Reuters reports that US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is expected to announce Federal Aviation Administration approval of the long-delayed 737 MAX 10, after a glitch with its navigation software had threatened to push certification back further. You can track Boeing's aircraft programmes and fleet details using the Aircraft Search tool.
The Bottom Line
The scale of O'Leary's warning is unusual even by his standards. A 10 to 20% rise in European airfares would represent a meaningful shift for an industry that has competed aggressively on price for decades.
The core drivers, unhedged fuel exposure from April 2027, shrinking capacity, and rising state taxes in markets such as Belgium, are real and documented. Whether fares rise at the top end of O'Leary's range will depend on how quickly airlines hedge forward positions and whether the Iran conflict eases. For now, European travellers planning trips in 2027 have been given a clear signal to book early.
Readers tracking Ryanair's network and commercial strategy can explore routes and schedules via the Airline Search tool.
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