A 15% drop in after-tax profit to €2.15bn has been recorded by Ryanair covering the half-year period through to the end of September, with lower average fares and sharply higher operating costs weighing on results despite a solid rise in passenger numbers. RTE reports that the equivalent figure for the same period a year earlier came in at €2.54bn.
The results land against a backdrop of ongoing Middle East tensions that the airline says are reshaping when passengers choose to book, and at what price.
What the Numbers Show
Revenue for the half year rose 3% to €10.08bn, according to both Irish Examiner and RTE. Passenger numbers grew 6% to 125.8m, RTE reports, up from 119 million in the same period last year.
Those headline gains were undermined, however, by a 4% drop in the average fare, which fell to €55.70 from €58 year-on-year, as reported by both outlets. Irish Examiner reports that scheduled revenue rose only 1% to €7bn across the April to September period, and that operating costs climbed 10% to €7.69bn.
The Fuel Problem
Fuel costs sit at the heart of Ryanair's financial picture. Through to March 2027, the airline has locked in 80% of its jet fuel requirements at $67 a barrel, Irish Examiner and RTE report, a position that has largely shielded it from broader market pressure. The remaining 20%, however, has proved far more costly: Irish Examiner reports that expenditure on that unhedged portion doubled over the period.
For the year beyond March 2027, Ryanair has begun building cover. RTE reports that hedges for the 12 months after that date were nudged up to 25% at $95 a barrel, from 15% at $85 at the end of June. The further horizon looks more daunting still: Ryanair estimates its fuel bill for financial year 2028 could rise by around €2bn based on current forward prices, according to both Irish Examiner and RTE.
Group chief executive Michael O'Leary was direct on the outlook: "Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, we expect jet-fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027."
That concern is not new for this airline. We covered O'Leary's warnings earlier this year in our report on the Ryanair CEO's jet fuel shortage fears following the Iran conflict, and we have also examined the broader question of what a wider regional war could mean for commercial aviation.
Bookings and the Quarter Three Picture
Forward demand into the current quarter appears resilient. Q3 fares are running ahead of where they stood at the same point last year, Irish Examiner and RTE report, though O'Leary flagged that passengers are leaving bookings later than before. "While quarter three demand is strong, with fares trending modestly ahead of the same quarter last year, the booking window remains closer-in which reduces visibility," he said.
That closer-in booking pattern matters because it limits the airline's ability to plan capacity and yield with any confidence. The airline has attributed some of this behaviour to the geopolitical environment, with O'Leary stating that "Middle East conflict led to consumer hesitancy and later bookings."
What It Means for Ryanair Passengers
For travellers, the immediate picture is a slight easing of fares compared with last summer, at least on average. Whether that continues into Q3 and beyond depends heavily on factors outside the airline's control, including fuel markets and the broader security environment.
Ryanair is Europe's largest carrier by passenger numbers, and movements in its pricing tend to reflect wider market conditions. Readers tracking fares or routes can use our Airline Search tool to follow the airline's network.
The Bottom Line
Ryanair carried more passengers and brought in more revenue in the first half of the year, yet profit still fell by a meaningful margin. The squeeze is coming from two directions: fares that passengers will not push higher, and fuel costs that the market is pushing up regardless. The hedge position through March 2027 provides a degree of shelter, but the airline's own estimate of a potential €2bn fuel cost increase in FY2028 signals that the pressure is not going away soon.
This article draws on reporting by irishexaminer and rte.
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