Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has issued a stark warning that Europe could face jet fuel supply disruptions as early as May if the Iran War continues to destabilise the Strait of Hormuz.
His comments reflect a growing unease across the aviation sector, where geopolitical tensions are now translating directly into operational risk.
“The fuel companies are happy there won’t be any disruption until early May,” he said, before cautioning that up to a quarter of Ryanair’s fuel supply could be at risk should the conflict persist into the summer.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most critical chokepoint in the global oil system, and Iran’s effective blockade has already slowed tanker movements and tightened the flow of refined products into Europe.
Irish premier Micheál Martin described the situation as “very serious”, warning that aviation would be among the first sectors to feel the shock if the war does not stop.
This aligns with broader industry analysis.
As The Aviation Hub has previously reported, the Iran war has pushed global fuel markets into a new phase of volatility, with airlines, refineries, and governments all scrambling to secure supply.
The question is no longer whether prices will rise, but whether regional shortages could emerge as early as spring.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Single Point of Failure
The aviation sector’s vulnerability stems from its dependence on a narrow corridor of global energy flow.
A significant share of the crude used to produce jet fuel passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and even the threat of disruption forces insurers to raise premiums and tanker operators to reroute vessels.
This creates a tightening of supply long before any physical shortage occurs.
In this case, the blockade has already slowed shipments.
The last kerosene cargoes that passed through the strait before its closure are expected to reach Europe around 10 April, according to industry analysts. After that, the flow becomes uncertain.
While experts say there is “no realistic risk of actually running out” of jet fuel, they acknowledge that stocks could fall to levels where localised shortages become possible.
For airlines operating on thin margins and tight schedules, even localised shortages can trigger cascading operational challenges.
The Risk Calculus for Ryanair With the Iran War
O’Leary’s assessment is blunt: if the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens by mid‑April, the risk evaporates.
If not, Ryanair could see 10 to 25 per cent of its fuel supply threatened through May and June.
Ryanair has already hedged around 80 per cent of its fuel needs through March next year at $67 per barrel, but the remaining 20 per cent is now exposed to prices that have nearly doubled.
The airline is not alone.
Carriers across Europe and Asia are activating emergency cost‑control measures, tankering fuel on vulnerable routes, and reassessing schedules to avoid airports with limited supply resilience.
Ireland’s Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien echoed O’Leary’s concerns, noting that aviation was a key focus at a recent EU Energy Council meeting.
He emphasised that a sizeable portion of Europe’s jet fuel originates from the Gulf, making the sector particularly exposed to prolonged disruption.
The Iran War: A Crisis Already Reshaping Global Aviation
The Iran conflict is not only a fuel story.
It has triggered widespread airspace closures, forced airlines to adopt longer routes, and increased fuel burn at a time when supply is tightening.
As The Aviation Hub has reported, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by up to 80 per cent, and jet fuel prices have more than doubled in a single month.
This is creating a multi‑layered crisis:
- Longer flight times are increasing operational costs.
- Navigation risks, including GPS jamming and spoofing, are rising on detour routes.
- Refinery bottlenecks are limiting jet fuel output even where crude supply remains available.
The result is a global aviation system under strain, with airlines forced to make difficult decisions about capacity, pricing, and network planning.
Europe’s Policy Response to the Iran War
The European Commission is preparing a package of energy measures, expected to include aviation‑specific provisions.
These may involve bulk fuel purchasing, expanded storage options, and strategies to protect affordability for consumers and businesses.
O’Brien noted that Ireland has already implemented one of Europe’s most significant intervention packages and retains flexibility to act again if needed.
At EU level, officials are also considering reviving measures introduced during the 2022 energy crisis, including demand‑curbing targets and market‑stabilising mechanisms.
With gas prices already up more than 70 per cent since the conflict began, policymakers are preparing for a scenario where refined products—especially jet fuel, become the next pressure point.
What Happens Next For Ryanair & Wider Industry
The trajectory of the Iran war will determine the severity of the jet fuel situation.
If tensions ease and shipping lanes reopen, markets could stabilise within months.
If not, Europe may face a summer defined by fuel rationing, schedule disruptions, and rising fares.
Analysis suggests three plausible outcomes: localised shortages, widespread rationing, or the activation of strategic reserves—none of which offer immediate relief for airlines already grappling with soaring costs.
For now, the industry is bracing for turbulence.
Airlines are securing long‑term contracts, diversifying suppliers, and increasing storage where possible.
But as O’Leary warns, the sector’s fate hinges on geopolitics rather than market strategy.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Europe’s aviation network could face its most significant fuel shock in decades.
If it reopens, the crisis may pass with only a warning shot.
Either way, the era of assuming abundant, affordable jet fuel is over.
The industry must now plan for a future where geopolitical risk is not an exception but a constant.
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