The global air cargo market delivered a strong performance in February 2026, with demand rising at its fastest pace in more than a year, even as geopolitical tensions and fuel volatility cloud the outlook for the months ahead.
New data from the International Air Transport Association shows that cargo tonne‑kilometres increased by 11.2 percent compared with February 2025, outpacing an 8.5 percent rise in industry capacity.
“Air cargo demand grew 11.2% in February,” IATA noted, highlighting the sector’s continued resilience.
The performance was supported by a strengthening global economy, robust manufacturing sentiment and a rebound in goods trade.
Yet the industry now faces a more uncertain environment following the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of the month, which has disrupted key cargo hubs and intensified pressure on fuel supply chains.
As IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned, “Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts.”
Strong Fundamentals Underpin Early‑Year Momentum
February’s growth was buoyed by a 5.2 percent year‑on‑year increase in global goods trade in January, providing a solid foundation for air freight demand.
Manufacturing activity also strengthened, with the global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 53.1, well above the 50‑point threshold that signals expansion.
New export orders reached their highest level since mid‑2021, reinforcing the positive demand environment for air cargo operators.
Fuel markets, however, remain a source of volatility. Jet fuel prices rose 1.2 percent year‑on‑year, and the widening Brent–jet fuel crack spread underscored the instability in refining margins.
With conflict in the Middle East disrupting supply chains and tightening availability in some regions, carriers are bracing for further cost pressure as the year progresses.
Regional Markets Show Broad‑Based Growth In Air Cargo
All major regions recorded year‑on‑year demand growth in February, though performance varied significantly.
Africa led the global expansion with a 21 percent surge in cargo demand, supported by an equally strong 17.3 percent rise in capacity.
The Africa–Asia corridor was a standout performer, posting a remarkable 61.9 percent year‑on‑year increase and marking eight consecutive months of growth.
Asia Pacific carriers delivered a 13.6 percent rise in demand, reflecting the region’s manufacturing strength and the seasonal uplift ahead of Lunar New Year.
Capacity increased by 10.1 percent, keeping pace with demand and supporting stable load factors.
Middle Eastern carriers posted a 16.5 percent increase in demand, continuing a year‑long run of double‑digit growth on the Middle East–Asia trade lane.
Capacity rose by 13.5 percent, though the conflict‑related disruption late in the month is expected to weigh on March performance.
North America recorded a 9.4 percent increase in demand, while Europe saw a more modest 6.9 percent rise amid ongoing economic softness in several key markets. Latin America and the Caribbean delivered the weakest regional performance, with demand up just 0.7 percent despite a 4.5 percent increase in capacity.
Trade Lanes Extend Growth Streaks
Every major trade corridor saw positive growth in February, reinforcing the broad‑based nature of the market recovery.
Europe–Asia traffic rose 13.1 percent, marking an extraordinary 36 consecutive months of expansion.
Within Asia, volumes increased 9.1 percent, extending a 28‑month growth streak.
The Middle East–Asia corridor grew 24 percent, while Europe–North America traffic rose 5.7 percent, continuing more than two years of uninterrupted growth.
Global Air Cargo Outlook Hinges on Geopolitical Stability
While February’s results underscore the resilience of global air cargo, the industry now faces a more complex operating environment.
The conflict in the Middle East has introduced new uncertainties around fuel availability, cost escalation and network disruption.
IATA emphasises that an early resolution of the conflict and a stabilisation of fuel markets would be in the best interests of the global supply chain.
For now, the sector enters the second quarter with strong underlying demand, supportive economic indicators and a broad‑based recovery across regions and trade lanes.
Whether this momentum can be sustained will depend heavily on how geopolitical and fuel‑market risks evolve in the months ahead.
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